03 October 2018

Weak Majors and College as an Investment


Stephen Kershnar
Subsidizing and Encouraging Weaker Majors
Dunkirk-Fredonia Observer
October 1, 2018

            There is an interesting issue as to whether it is wise to heavily subsidize weaker college majors.  

            College is a risky investment. According to the National Center for Education Statistics, roughly 59% of students who enrolled in colleges (and universities) in 2009 graduated in six years. Only about 40% graduated in four years. Jaison Abel and Richard Dietz of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found in that in 2010, 62% of college graduates had a job that required a college degree. As a result, more than half of those who enter college don’t get a job that requires a college degree.

            College is expensive for students and, often, parents. According to Project on Student Debt, in 2015, 68% of college graduates had student loan debt. According to the Federal Reserve, the average debt in 2017 for student who had taken out loans was $39,000. The amount of these loans can also be seen in that Americans owe more in student-loan debt ($1.5 trillion) than credit-card debt ($0.9 trillion). Students frequently default on these loans. More than one in nine people with student loans default. A college student also loses years of income and on-the-job training.  

            Taxpayers and others also pay for college. Writing in The Atlantic, University of Colorado Law Professor Paul Campos reports that in 2014 federal and state taxpayers paid roughly $160 billion ($7,900 per college student) to colleges. Many pay for the student-loan defaults.  

            In The Case Against Education (2018), George Mason economist Bryan Caplan concludes that the return on investment for return for fair and poor students is often small (1-2%) and, in some cases, negative. On his account, a fair student is in the 41% of cognitive ability and the poor student in the 24%. Caplan also found that the social return on investment (return taxpayers get for investing in a college education) for college is poor and, sometimes, negative in part because the college student gets most of the return on the investment. Again, the return is noticeably worse for fair and weak students. This will become an issue at SUNY-Fredonia because more than a quarter of recently admitted students graduated in the bottom half of their high school class.

            The problem is exacerbated with weaker majors. Weaker majors have some of these features: higher unemployment, lower salaries, weaker students, and a less important subject matter. They include art (drama, music, studio, and visual arts), communication, education, ethnic and gender studies, and recreation (parks, recreation, and leisure and, also, physical fitness). Stronger majors include accounting, computer science, economics, engineering, mathematics, and physics. Some majors are harder to categorize. Consider English and psychology.  

            Subsidies for weaker majors should be reduced. Lessening subsidies to these majors might be done by offering them at fewer or no state colleges or by using merit-based subsidies as a way of discouraging less capable students from studying them. Private universities would likely still offer these majors and taxpayers generously subsidize these universities through below-market loans, grants to students, grants to universities, and tax breaks.  

            Here is the argument. First, if, on average, one college major has a lower return on investment for students and taxpayers than a second, then it should receive less of a subsidy. Second, on average, weaker majors have a lower return on investment for students and taxpayers than stronger ones. Hence, weaker major should receive less of a subsidy. A similar argument suggests that students should be encouraged to choose stronger majors. This is especially true for fair and poor students.

            It is arguably callous, if not cruel, to subsidize and encourage fair and poor students to have weaker majors when they are less likely to graduate, less likely to do well in the major, and, if they graduate, less likely to get a job that requires a college degree and pays well. This is similar to how it was arguably callous, if not cruel, in the years leading up to the 2007-2008 subprime mortgage crisis, to subsidize and encourage poor people to take risky loans for houses they couldn’t afford.

            One objection is that weaker majors do not give students a worse return on investment. However, writing in Forbes, Niall McCarthy found that in 2017, the majors with the lowest median salaries included exercise science, education, music, and psychology. According to a 2015 study by Georgetown University’s Center on Education and the Workforce, the majors with the lowest median earnings include counseling psychology, early childhood education, drama and theater arts, studio arts, and visual and performing arts. It also found that the majors with the highest part-time employment include visual and performing arts, studio arts, and music.

            A second objection is that even if weaker majors give students a worse return on investment, they do not give taxpayers a worse return on investment. I can’t find evidence for this claim. Perhaps I am missing it. Even if there were such evidence, there is little reason to believe that the greater return to people other than the student would outweigh the lesser return to the student.

            A third objection is that even if weaker majors give students and taxpayers a worse return on investment, neither taxpayers nor students should care about a major’s return on investment. This might be because money is not a good measure of what these majors provide. Instead, the value might be the students’ love of the major or the benefits it provides to the rest of us that markets don’t value.

Consider the arts. Even if students are willing to face lower salaries and worse employment to pursue what they love, the rest of us shouldn’t have to pay for it. Taxpayers can probably get much of the benefits through top-ranked programs in these fields. For example, in music consider Julliard, Curtis, and Eastman and in film consider USC, NYU, and UCLA.

It is unwise to subsidize and encourage weaker majors, especially for less able students.

No comments: