30 April 2012

A Debate Over Academic Standards: Response Staples

To John Staples:

Thank you for your interesting and thoughtful response. Your argument is that even if Fredonia is losing ground on SATs relative to competitors this need not bother us because the SAT is a flawed measure of academic potential.

1. SAT as Measure: I disagree. Once the restricted range is corrected for, the correlation between SAT scores and first-year GPA is reasonable. On one large 2001 meta-analysis it was somewhere in the 0.44 to 0.62 range. The likely reason for this is that SATs correlate strongly with general intelligence (g) as measured by IQ (.82 correlation on one study) and IQ scores predict a wide range of socially important behaviors, often with greater accuracy than parental socio-economic status.

2. Plausibility: The notion that SATs do not track any useful information is implausible. In About.com, Old Westbury’s mid 50% SATs are 955-1110, Yale’s are 1410-1590. Is it plausible to think that these scores do not tell us anything about the relative academic ability of incoming freshmen at these schools from these scores? I suspect we would agree on this issue.

3. GPA as Measure: Even if you think the SATs are unreliable, I would be surprised if you thought the same about a measure that combined high school GPA and SATs. Again, high school GPA when combined with the SAT score is a reasonable predictor of a student’s first-year college GPA, especially relative to its other measures. Among SUNY colleges in 2011, the high school GPA of Fredonia is ranked 7th behind the usual suspects: Geneseo, New Paltz, Cortland, Oneonta/Brockport (tied), and Oswego. I do not know if this was true in 1990.

4. SAT and Graduation: One former Provost of SUNY (Peter Salins, 1997-2006), argued that for a four-year period in SUNY campuses with highly differentiated missions, whose high school GPAs improved by the same modest amount (2-3%), only those whose SAT scores improved substantially saw gains in graduation rate. Those that didn’t change their SAT scores did not see an increase. I have doubts about how strong evidence this is toward the relation between SATs and graduation, but it is worth considering.

Thank you again for the note,
Steve K

12 April 2012

Future of SUNY-Fredonia: Debate over Academic Standards

Stephen Kershnar
A Debate over Admissions Data
Dunkirk-Fredonia Observer
April 11, 2012

Recently President Dennis Hefner and I have gotten into a debate over whether over the last two decades, SUNY-Fredonia has lost ground in attracting better students relative to its competitors. This debate might be of interest to the campus and community. Here is the original article and the response.

http://www.observertoday.com/page/content.detail/id/570222/Raising-standards-at-SUNY-is-job-one.html

http://www.observertoday.com/page/content.detail/id/570356/College-president-presents-the-facts.html

My argument was that in the last two decades, SUNY-Fredonia has lost ground in attracting better students relative to its competitors. Specifically, I argued that in 1990, Fredonia was 3rd among SUNY colleges, behind only Geneseo and Oswego, in student ability (this ranking is based on SAT scores). In 2011, it was tied for 6th with Cortland. Three schools passed it (New Paltz, Purchase, and Oneonta), one school tied it (Cortland), and two schools remain ahead (Geneseo and Oswego). My measure for the more recent ranking is whether a school is higher than another in two or more of the following three categories: SAT scores for the middle 50%, ACT scores for the middle 50%, and high school grade point average.

I do not take a position on whether the lost ground is anyone’s fault or due to factors outside of anyone’s control. Such factors might include demographic or economic changes in Western New York.

Hefner rejects this argument. He provides two arguments to the contrary. First, from 1996 to 2012, Fredonia’s incoming class improved. Second, were comparable data to be used, Fredonia would be ranked higher than the schools that passed or tied it and the distance between it and the schools that are ranked ahead of it would have narrowed (or some weighted combination of these claims). Comparable data include scores from all of the students.

Hefner argued that the SUNY-wide data is non-comparable in part because of “SAT inflation” tactics that are sometimes present in the industry. This is also in part because Fredonia has the lowest “exceptional admit” percentage. “Exceptional admit” students are students who have lower SAT scores and are excluded from the calculation. Because not counting “exceptional admit” students moves us away from comparable data, Hefner is claiming that Fredonia provides non-comparable statistics, but to a lesser degree than its competitors.

The first argument is irrelevant. Even if from 1996 to 2012 Fredonia’s incoming class improved, this does not show that over the last two decades, SUNY-Fredonia did not lose ground in attracting better students relative to its competitors. We would need to know whether our competitors improved even more.

The second argument depends on the following implicit claims based on comparable data: (1) the schools that were ahead of Fredonia (Geneseo and Oswego) are now less ahead and (2) the schools that were behind Fredonia (New Paltz, Purchase, Oneonta, and Cortland) have not tied or passed it but are farther behind it. Hefner does not explicitly state these claims. I do not know why.

Hefner does not cite a source or make it clear on what comparable data he rests his claim. I was unable to locate any source, study, or publicly available data in support of these implicit claims. Perhaps my search was flawed. It is unclear if he wants us to accept these claims based on his word or on evidence that is not publicly available. In any case, for these implicit claims to be convincing, he needs to provide some evidence.

In the column, I pointed out that I do not know whether the lost ground is due to differences in loans, aid, and income. I cited data from a 2011 Kiplinger article that found that among the eleven schools (Binghamton, Geneseo, Stony Brook, New Paltz, Buffalo, Oneonta, Brockport, Plattsburgh, Cortland, and Albany) that Kiplinger ranks, Fredonia graduates have the third highest average debt at graduation and its students receive the third lowest amount of both need-based aid and non-need-based aid. Fredonia’s graduates have almost $8,000 more debt than New Paltz students, $8,000 more than SUNY-Buffalo students, and $4,000 more than Geneseo students.

Hefner claims that Kiplinger’s data is inaccurate because it is based on false and incomplete information. First, he claims that it is false because the difference between Fredonia and the other ten schools is much smaller than Kiplinger reports. Second, he claims that the data is incomplete because it excludes the parent loan category and excludes students who graduated with zero debt.

Consider Hefner’s claim that Kiplinger’s data are false. Hefner fails to provide evidence, such as a source or study, so his claim cannot be evaluated. In addition, for his argument to work, were parent-loan and zero-debt data to be taken into account and properly weighted, the ranking would vary significantly from that found in Kiplinger. I am not sure how the weighted ranking should be done. For example, should parental loans be given the same weight as student loans? Even if the weighted ranking can be done, we again need evidence that once corrected, the current ranking would vary significantly.

On a side note, the rejection of Kiplinger’s data is odd. Here is the title of an article in Fredonia’s Campus Report dated January 3, 2012, “SUNY Fredonia named a Kiplinger's "Best Value" once again.” Apparently, their data used to be reliable.

Hefner asserts that Fredonia’s admissions approach works very well as evidenced by Fredonia’s consistently strong graduation rates, even though it does not maximize the reported SAT scores. This claim does not conflict with my argument. Perhaps it was not meant as a criticism.

Consider recent data from the New York State Education Department (2010). It indicates that the following is a list of some of the SUNY universities and colleges with a higher six-year graduation rate (a standard measure): Albany, Alfred (College of Ceramics), Binghamton, Buffalo, Brockport, Environmental Science & Forestry, Geneseo, New Paltz, and Oneonta. Fredonia’s graduation rate is not in the top ten of SUNY colleges. In a 2009 study by the American Enterprise Institute (based on 2007 data), the six-year graduation rate at Fredonia (62.3%) was worse than 35 colleges and universities in New York (out of 105 whose graduation rates are reported) and barely better than the state average (59.6%). On this study, the top ten competitive schools nationwide (I’m guessing this is Fredonia’s comparison class), all have graduation rates that are at least ten percentage points higher, although to be fair, these include private colleges and universities. I do not see how we can be confident that Fredonia’s admissions approach, which does not maximize reported SAT scores, works very well.

Hefner also claimed that my argument contained false and misleading information, contained glaring errors, was appalling to him, and was written by “one of our own.” He did not present evidence in support of these claims. Also, I am unsure how to interpret the scare quotes.

This debate is part of government transparency. In general, it is important that state institutions be transparent. Part of transparency involves allowing current and potential students and taxpayers to have access to the data concerning state colleges and universities. Also, on some accounts, the faculty should have access to the data in order to help govern their institutions. Perhaps Fredonia should be public about double-booking admissions data and should publicize its true admissions data, including “exceptional admit” students, along with its sanitized data.

Hefner and I agree on the most important claim: SUNY-Fredonia is a strong college with a lot to be proud of and its academic standards should reflect this.

05 April 2012

Fredonia: Losing Ground Relative to Competitors

Stephen Kershnar
A Job for the New President: Raise Academic Standards
Dunkirk-Fredonia Observer
March 29, 2011

With the appointment of a new President to SUNY-Fredonia, Virginia Horvath, one of the most important jobs she will have is to promote academic excellence at Fredonia.

Over the last two decades, SUNY-Fredonia has excelled in getting new buildings and expensive renovations. According to SUNY-Fredonia’s alumni magazine, Statement, Fredonia had the following built: Natatorium, University Commons, Rosch Recital Hall, University Stadium, Sound Recording Studio, Campus and Community Children’s Center, Technology Incubator, Robert and Marilyn Maytum Music Rehearsal Halls, and the Science Center. There have also been a number of major renovations on campus. The total construction spent on these and other capital construction projects has been at least $360 million. This construction boom is an outstanding accomplishment and has significantly benefitted the campus and community.

Let me also mention that many Fredonia students are unbelievably smart and talented. For example, I’ve had students attend an incredible array of elite law and graduate schools, including Penn, Duke, William & Mary, Boston College, Syracuse, Rutgers, Illinois, Ohio State, and Indiana. Many of these students are equally successful in their personal lives as in their professional ones. Many of these students were better than the Ivy League students who were my classmates.

Also, faculty that taught them includes many incredible people who excel at both research and teaching. The students were lucky to learn from such outstanding talent and I am lucky to work with them.

That said, in the last two decades, SUNY-Fredonia has lost ground in attracting better students relative to its competitors. In 1990, Fredonia was 3rd among SUNY colleges, behind only Geneseo and Oswego, in student ability. In 2011, it was tied for 6th with Cortland. Three schools passed it (New Paltz, Purchase, and Oneonta), one school tied it (Cortland), and two schools remain ahead (Geneseo and Oswego). My measure here is whether a school is higher than another in two or more of the following three categories: SAT scores for the middle 50%, ACT scores for the middle 50%, and high school grade point average.

Consider New Paltz and Purchase. In 1990, Fredonia’s average SAT scores for freshmen were 70 points higher than New Paltz’s freshmen and 50 points higher than Purchase’s. By 2011, Fredonia’s freshmen (1040-1200 SAT/22-26 ACT) scored much lower than New Paltz’s freshmen (1110-1300 SAT/24-29 ACT) and slightly lower than Purchase’s freshmen (1060-1210 SAT/24-29 ACT).

On a side note, Fredonia’s student body also has noticeably lower scores than SUNY’s major university centers and doctoral degree granting institutions, although this might be a long-standing difference. Here are the 2011 SAT ranges for the middle 50% of students at the university centers: Binghamton (1180-1340), Stony Brook (1170-1310), Buffalo (1120-1270), and Albany (1110-1250). Note that it is possible for a SUNY college to beat the university centers. Geneseo (1290-1370) beats all but Cornell’s public colleges and they’re a whole different animal.

It is unclear what accounts for changes in ranking. One college ranking reported that Fredonia admits a higher percentage of students. In a January 201l article in Kiplinger that rates the best values in public colleges, Fredonia’s admission rate (49%) is higher than several of its competitors, including: New Paltz (34%), Geneseo (35%), Oneonta (39%), Cortland (39%), and Brockport (48%). Perhaps these other schools have an advantage because they are closer to large populations or populations that are doing better economically.

It is also unclear what is going on with loans, aid, and income. Among the eleven schools (Binghamton, Geneseo, Stony Brook, New Paltz, Buffalo, Oneonta, Brockport, Plattsburgh, Cortland, and Albany) that Kiplinger ranks, Fredonia graduates have the third highest average debt at graduation and its students receive the third lowest amount of both need-based aid and non-need-based aid. Fredonia’s graduates have almost $8,000 more debt than New Paltz students, $8,000 more than Buffalo students, and $4,000 more than Geneseo students. I do not know what accounts for these differences.

Data compiled by The Wall Street Journal indicates that Fredonia students also make less money (mid-career median salary) than those at other SUNY university centers and colleges. Fredonia graduates make $66,000 (mid-career median salary). This is less than its elite SUNY competitors: Binghamton ($96,000), Stony Brook ($93,000), Albany ($92,000), Buffalo ($82,000), and Geneseo ($81,000). They also make less than students at other competitors: Oswego ($78,000), Oneonta ($77,000), Plattsburgh ($76,000), and Potsdam ($70,000). This might be due to the lower pay in the Buffalo area, the fields Fredonia emphasizes (for example, education and music), or the gender balance at Fredonia, but I’m guessing. Given these possible explanations, there is no obvious need for Fredonia to address this gap.

It is unclear whether the majors that Fredonia emphasizes affect the student body’s competitiveness and their average salary. According to one study by Wake Forest economist Kevin Rask, two of the majors that Fredonia emphasizes (education and music) are fields that give out some of the highest grades. In contrast, chemistry, math, and economics, give out the lowest. This pattern can be seen on Fredonia’s campus. In 2010, the two education departments at Fredonia gave out A’s or A-‘s to 55% and 76% of its students. Music gave these grades to 58% of its students. In general, the majors with some of the lowest grades seem to have students with the highest IQs (see blogger Steve Sailer’s estimates of actual college majors using GRE scores). I should disclose that I also give out lots of A’s.

Let me state the obvious here: there are many music and education students and professors who are incredibly smart and talented and significantly better thinkers and people than most other people (including one overly opinionated philosophy professor).

Consider drug and alcohol use. On The Daily Beast’s ranking of druggiest colleges, Fredonia was ranked 10th nationwide. I doubt that the rankings were scientific and don’t know what produced Fredonia’s impressive ranking. Given this, I doubt drugs affected Fredonia’s numbers. On a side note, because drug use like alcohol use is often harmless fun, I don’t think this is something to worry about.

The academic performance of the minority student population at Fredonia is an area of concern. The undergraduate graduation rate for minority freshmen is low for four years (average rate: 28%, 1999-2005) and low for six years (average rate: 43%, 1999-2004). It is unclear if this is due to students dropping or transferring out. With a push to admit more minority students, this area warrants discussion. I’d also like to make two quick points. First, I doubt this area of concern affects the above numbers. Second, many of the minority students in my class are superb students and a pleasure to have in my classes.

The new President might consider trying to increase student competitiveness in a manner similar to what was done by Geneseo and New Paltz in the last few decades. SUNY-Fredonia is a strong college with a lot to be proud of and its academic standards should reflect this.